The headlines say one thing. The data says something more nuanced. Here's what mid-market CEOs should actually be paying attention to right now. This two-part series from Chief Outsiders Founder & CEO Art Saxby explores what the data actually shows about CEO confidence, why this moment is different from past disruptions, and where mid-market companies are finding real growth opportunities right now.
By Art Saxby, Chief Outsiders Founder & CEO
If it feels like every decision carries more weight than it did a few years ago, you're not alone.
Interest rates, tariffs, labor challenges, geopolitical uncertainty, and rapid technological change have created a business environment where even confident leaders are second-guessing decisions they might have made quickly before.
The uncertainty is real. But that doesn't mean the opportunity has disappeared.
The headlines are not lying to you. Among large enterprise CEOs, the Conference Board's Measure of CEO Confidence fell from 59 in Q1 to 47 in Q2 2026, and 47% said conditions had worsened over the prior six months.
That is a real signal. But it is not the whole picture. There are signals that confidence is improving and the market isn’t doom and gloom.
While Chief Executive's CEO Confidence Index also shows that CEO confidence is low relative to prior years, it is also seeing an improving trend for four consecutive months.
It also shows that 57% of CEOs forecast economic growth by the end of 2026, the highest share since February. Meanwhile, only 15% now expect a recession within the next six months, the lowest level since February.
And the Conference Board survey shows that capital spending plans have not collapsed: 37% of CEOs expected to increase capital spending, while only 8% expected to reduce it.
Source: CEO Confidence Index, Chief Executive Group — chiefexecutive.net
And here’s what’s interesting. Even if CEOs aren’t sure about the market, they are confident in their own companies. JPMorgan's 2026 Business Leaders Outlook found that 71% of mid-market CEOs are confident in their own company's performance, even as only 39% are optimistic about the U.S. economy overall.
That gap matters. Macro uncertainty and company-level opportunity are not the same thing, and conflating them is one of the most expensive mistakes a leader can make right now.
The uncertainty leaders are navigating today is real. But it is fundamentally different from the disruptions that defined the last two decades, like the 2008 financial crises, the 2020 Covid shutdown, or the 2022 inflation and supply chain shock.
Today's environment looks different. Rather than a single catastrophic event, companies are managing through a collection of pressures that accumulate into a kind of decision fatigue.
And, yet, ITR Economics' 2026 outlook points to growth returning across GDP, industrial production, and business investment, alongside many specific sectors that are actually strong or accelerating right now.
There are opportunities right now. We’re seeing companies looking to move beyond founder-led growth, to help clarify their target markets and how to win in them, and how to leverage AI to improve sales productivity. They see opportunities and want a commercial organization that can realize them.
There will never be a perfect time to invest in key strategic initiatives. The leaders who pull ahead—even in uncertain markets—are not the ones who bunker down and wait for every signal to turn green. They are the ones who decided to move anyway: with discipline, with focus, and before their competitors do.
Among the CEOs who are optimistic about the year ahead, several cited new products, onshoring, steady backlogs, and pent-up demand as factors supporting their outlook. These are not companies ignoring the environment. They are companies making deliberate choices within it.
Mid-market businesses have a structural advantage in moments like this: they can move faster than large enterprises, adapt more quickly, and make decisions without layers of bureaucracy. That agility is worth something, but only if you use it.
In our next post, we'll get specific: where to focus, what to protect, and how to make your commercial motion more productive.
What CEOs Are Asking About Growth in Uncertain Markets
Not necessarily. In fact, it may be a great time to invest in growth, as long as that investment is focused. While uncertainty remains elevated, opportunity still exists. Many CEOs expect economic conditions to improve over the rest of the year, and many companies continue to invest in sales, marketing, technology, and operational improvements.
The better question is not whether to invest. It is where to invest, how to prioritize resources, and which opportunities are most likely to create measurable growth.
Many are focusing on productivity, customer retention, AI adoption, and targeted growth initiatives within growth sectors.
Many are. Surveys show CEOs are more confident in their own businesses than in the overall economy, and Chief Outsiders is seeing leaders with opportunities even amid uncertainty.
Several sectors continue to show strength, including industrial production, medical equipment, electrical equipment, infrastructure-related markets, and selected technology segments.
Focus on customers, market opportunities, productivity improvements, and maintaining strategic flexibility rather than waiting for complete certainty.