Everyone “knows” we’re in a recession except the economists. We feel the pain of collapsed 401k's, higher fuel and food prices, so isn’t that enough to declare a recession? And shouldn’t my business be hunkering down to ride this out?
In today’s chaotic economy, we are more likely to react to news headlines and stock market trends than market insight. We might completely abandon a core strategy, or delay critical execution tactics, based on the sick feeling in our guts. One way to solve this is by tapping the reliable data and forecasts published by ITR Economics.
On July 21st, ITR Economics held an event called, “The Threat of Higher Interest Rates – Driven by Inflation Pressures,” which was presented by ITR CEO Brian Beaulieu, and President Alan Beaulieu. A replay is available here ($199). They shared extensive, convincing evidence that inflation is peaking, disinflation is around the corner, and that the economy – while slowing – is not in a recession and is not likely to. Several points of evidence include:
ITR’s forecasts show that most sectors of the economy, while slowing, are not expected to experience negative growth (a recession) in this cycle. If this is true of your sector, what does it mean? How should you align your strategy and execution tactics to capitalize on opportunities rather than simply hunker down? Consider how your competitors are responding. Perhaps as they take their feet off the gas pedal, you can capture more share by making calculated moves. Consider these questions:
I loved it when, during the July 21st ITR Economics event, Alan Beaulieu referenced the overall economic situation as “coming down from a Sugar High.” Of course, he was referring to the repercussions of the massive economic stimulus program government deployed to buoy the economy through the peek COVID-19 impact. Surely, we shouldn’t be surprised we’re having to navigate these waters. Right? Optimistically summarizing our current situation, the macro economy is awaiting some normalization to regain its footing. And most businesses can still experience growth at this time. Like dealing with a real sugar crash, ingesting some solid food – boldly making fresh strategic assessments and investments – might just be the ticket to weathering the slow down, and positioning for further growth as we wade past the threat of hyper-inflation and interest rate adjustments. And there are winners and losers in every economic cycle. Substituting sound economic insight for media-driven emotional chaos is a great place to start.